Moving from Grudging Admiration to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A unexpected operation against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its plan to rule indefinitely.

That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed with precision,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was meant to unfold: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for this long.”

Such commentary have fueled a mood of introspection among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly power-based world order – one where might, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”