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Entering the planet's most popular art institution in the middle of the day, grabbing eight pieces of priceless historical gems and vanishing into Paris traffic on humble scooters may seem like the boldest of crimes, executed for global fame and subsequent Hollywood film treatments.

Experts who observe patterns in international art crime, however, see Sunday morning’s robbery at the Louvre as a more practical matter: the most recent in a series of smash-and-grab thefts focused more on the material value of valuable gems or materials than the historical importance, continuing a pattern that has emerged over the last ten years in Germany, Britain and the US. The venue, they suggest, would have been of secondary concern to the criminals.

“One might wonder why criminals who want to steal valuable jewellery are entering a world-famous museum rather than a Cartier store,” stated Christopher A Marinello. “It's straightforward: it’s because nowadays a Cartier store is better protected.”

A spate of violent retail store thefts mean that many outlets have beefed up their protection in the past few years, with security personnel on their locations and merchandise no longer shown overnight. Cultural institutions, on the other hand, look more exposed, partly because of the inherent reason of being accessible institutions in older structures, and partly the financial situation in many developed nations.

“Since Covid, authorities across the world have cut back on law enforcement and the culture sector,” said Marinello. “If thieves can get into the Louvre, it shows how vulnerable our museums have become. This is a horrible time to be a museum.”

The robbery of the items – including jewelry pieces made up of eight sapphires and hundreds of gems, the crown of Empress Eugénie featuring thousands of diamonds and a hugely valuable crown once owned by a royal that the thieves left by the street on their way out – has naturally drawn comparisons with the 1911 theft of the famous painting from the same museum, performed by the worker Vincenzo Peruggia.

More relevant comparisons may be the 2019 theft of valuables from Dresden’s Green Vault Museum worth over €113m, the theft of a multi-million pound gold toilet from Blenheim Palace the that year, the recent heist of a large gold coin from Berlin’s Bode Museum or even a spate of thefts of collector items from US mining museums.

“It's a clear trend here,” said Marinello. “Smash, grab, and melt it down as rapidly as possible.”

If the items were to remain intact, specialists say, the thieves would find it hard to find a buyer. “There’s no way to sell something as recognizable as the Louvre’s jewels on the licit market”, said Lynda Albertson of the a relevant organization.

“They are too well-known, particularly given the cultural authorities has released images of the pieces. Even a private collector or an sales venue would want to see documentation establishing legal possession before touching such remarkable pieces.”

In the past, museums were often hesitant to go public about the disappearance of famous art pieces and would stay silent out of embarrassment. These days, as cultural robberies are more reported on, the storage and sale of stolen art is risky business for any lawbreaker.

“Taking a famous painting, it has to remain intact or it becomes valueless, and you have to devise a plan to keep it in hiding, maybe by moving it among dangerous individuals,” noted Marinello. “And you’re constantly exposed to the risk of an partner informing authorities to collect a reward.”

For comparable factors, an art detective said it was vanishingly unlikely that the robbery had been commissioned. “Stolen to order is something from films,” he said. “No one would handle these items. It’s all around the world and in all the media. If you acquire these, if you are apprehended, you end up in prison. You can't display it to your friends, you cannot leave it to your children.”

Altering taken items by dismantling or reshaping does reduce the value. When it comes to gems, it also comes with considerable risk because modern cutting techniques give stones a bigger and brighter appearance, and older-style stones would either draw unwanted attention or reduce value for a concealment.

Crucially, however, melting down or reshaping eliminates the proof of the theft. “My guess is that the robbers will try to bring the stolen goods to locations with diamond expertise like Israel, another nation or even as nearby as Antwerp, and locate an expert to remove the gems,” said Marinello.

The robbery at the Louvre has already brought up concerns about security measures at the institution, with a leaked official review expected to be published next month pointing out “considerable” and “persistent” delays in updating systems and noting that surveillance were missing in many rooms. But security experts say displaying precious items in historic buildings with a constant flow of visitors comes with dangers that are impossible to remove entirely.

“Historic buildings are much harder to protect,” said Erin Thompson. “Many of them have large accessible windows that allows for criminals to escape, and there may be preservation laws in place that mean you can’t fit them with proper bulletproof glass.”

The most solid protective measures for structures should be designed “as a stronghold”, noted Peter Stürmann. “There should be several layers to deter intruders.”

Contemporary structures are fitted with state-of-the-art surveillance systems or integrated seismic detectors that raise alarm about a smashed window in immediately, but historic institutions may be reluctant to uglify their exteriors. Laser scanners can be difficult to install to stuccoed ceilings. Motion and sound detectors may also have to be turned off during the daytime as hordes of visitors walk through a museum.

The schedule of the robbery, which occurred between 9.30am and 9.40am in Paris, was typical of modern robberies, Stürmann said. “It's logical why thefts tend to happen at either opening or closing times. Frequently when guards rotate and prior to the museum is full of visitors who effectively act as additional security staff.”

Advances in technology may have introduced new gadgets that can raise the alarm more rapidly and efficiently, but it has also given robbers new tools with which to circumvent security measures. In the city, the thieves accessed the museum’s upper level with a vehicle-mounted ladder and cut through a glass pane with a battery-powered disc cutter.

Elaine Sciolino said the discussion in France about the historic building had mostly centered on crowd control in recent years, and less on protection.

The institution has an on-site team of about fifty permanent emergency personnel, but their mission is mostly to safeguard the artworks from blazes and water damage. “There is no quick reaction team,” Sciolino said. “Ultimately, the security of the Louvre all depends on political will and funding, and currently the nation lacks sufficient resources.”